The same rates that pay investors more make borrowing more expensive for everyone else. Tom Hamilton explains why both sides matter.

Stocks get the headlines. Tom Hamilton watches bonds.

Right now, it's sending a clear signal. A few years ago, investors wanted about 3% to lend to the U.S. government for 10 years. At the time of the episode, they wanted about 5.1%.

Why it matters on Main Street

Treasury rates set the bar for other lenders. When they rise, mortgages, business loans and even the financing behind AI data centers tend to get more expensive. Add high diesel prices, which raise the cost of shipping and farming nearly everything we buy, and inflation becomes harder to shake.

Tom isn't predicting a recession. But he's watching how these pressures add up.

The upside, and the catch

Higher yields mean new bonds can pay more income, which is good news for retirees. But existing bonds usually lose value when rates rise, and longer-term bonds are hit hardest.

That's why Hamilton Wealth Management has favored shorter-term, high-quality fixed income in recent years. Now the question is whether it's time to lock in higher rates for longer. A higher yield doesn't answer that by itself. It depends on how the investment fits your income plan.

Social Security: skip the rule of thumb

The same thinking applies to when to claim Social Security. You can start at 62 with a reduced benefit, or wait until 70 for a larger one. The right answer depends on your health, income needs, other savings and, for couples, how both benefits work together.

Listen to the full episode, including Tom and his son Nick Hamilton, HWM's Technology & Process Specialist, making their Bills predictions for the upcoming Fall 2026 season.

Want a second look at your retirement plan? Contact Hamilton Wealth Management for a complimentary, no-obligation review.

Bonds are subject to risk factors including: 1) Default Risk - the risk that the issuer of the bond might default on its obligation 2) Rating Downgrade - the risk that a rating agency lowers a debt issuer's bond rating 3) Reinvestment Risk - the risk that a bond might mature when interest rates fall, forcing the investor to accept lower rates of interest (this includes the risk of early redemption when a company calls its bonds before maturity) 4) Interest Rate Risk - this is the risk that bond prices tend to fall as interest rates rise. 5) Liquidity Risk - the risk that a creditor may not be able to liquidate the bond before maturity.